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Prediction for CME (2021-04-22T05:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-04-22T05:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16772/-1
CME Note: Associated with an eruption visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-04-22T04:21Z, and associated with C3.8 flare beginning at 2021-04-22T04:10 and peaking at 2021-04-22T04:35Z. There is some northeastern deflection apparent in the available EUV imagery. Arrival signaled by sudden rise in Btotal from 5 to 8 nT at 2021-04-2422:24Z, followed shortly by an increase in Btotal to above 10 nT, accompanied by jumps in velocity, density, and temperature as measured by DSCOVR.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-24T22:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-25T00:43Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]

% Compiled module: EAM_V3.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 803.0 km/s 
Upgraded EAMv3 output:
u_r =      481.629
Acceleration:       1.09126
Duration in seconds:        242431.75
Duration in days:        2.8059230
t2 is negative
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   1.09 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  746.2 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/04/2021 Time: 00:43 UT

Lead Time: 39.15 hour(s)
Difference: -2.32 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-04-23T07:15Z

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